Decoding the Guru Money Flow. Where the smart money moved before the Q3 pivot.
"Big money is quietly converging on a handful of durable growth compounding machines while trimming low growth cash-flows... lean into scalable moats tied to AI, payments rails, and mission-critical software."
Gurus accumulated platforms. The edge is in the plumbing: power semis, optical interconnects, EDA, and grid equipment.
Renaissance ramped Nvidia (+584%), Netflix. Lone Pine added Workday & Datadog. Soros opened AI-linked options.
Resilience in payment toll roads is the signal. The edge is in adjacent layers: issuer processing and chargeback automation.
Baupost’s new Fiserv stake (3.75% of portfolio) & PagSeguro. Tom Gayner initiated Visa.
Adds to builders and distributors suggest the supply constraint thesis still pays. Focus on upstream distributors.
Berkshire added Pool & DR Horton. Donald Smith initiated Mohawk & Gerdau. Adds to Harley-Davidson.
Value investors adding managed care hints at cash-flow durability and pricing power. Think payor tech.
Berkshire, Appaloosa, and Hotchkis & Wiley all bought/added UnitedHealth (UNH). Dodge & Cox increased UNH.
If telecom is sold to fund growth, only buy where capex creates structural advantage, like high-density fiber.
Berkshire exited T-Mobile. Akre trimmed American Tower. Rotation into pricing power names like Constellation Brands.
Credible signals came from managers making big, lumpy adds. High-conviction sizing over timid diversification.
Pershing’s new Amazon stake (~5.8M shares). Icahn’s big adds to IEP & Centuri. Paulson’s concentrated upsizes.
Alphabet & Amazon are crowded. Generate alpha with complements: vertical SaaS, data center components, and logistics software.
Consensus: Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia. Complements: GE Vernova, Teledyne, Vistra, Omnicom.
Minor rebalancing only.
0% turnover.
High churn. Added LLY.