AlphaGuru 2025Q3 Guru Report

The Fracturing of the Consensus

The third quarter of 2025 marks a definitive inflection point. We are witnessing a violent fracturing of the consensus that dominated the post-GFC era, signaling a decisive rotation from passive beta accumulation to aggressive, high-conviction idiosyncratic stock selection.

The defining narrative is not merely "selling tech." It is a sophisticated arbitrage from "application layer" software (SaaS) to "physical layer" hardware and infrastructure. Simultaneously, a massive, coordinated reallocation is underway by the deep value community toward "real economy" assets: offshore drilling, metallurgical coal, power generation, and distressed financials.

Key Themes at a Glance

"Mag 7" Bifurcation: The "Magnificent Seven" is splitting into "Funding Sources" (Apple, Microsoft) and "GARP" (Google, Amazon).
The Tiger Cub Pivot: Historically staunch SaaS defenders are liquidating high-beta software to fund massive positions in AI infrastructure and custom silicon.
Real Asset Resurgence: Deep value contrarians are making aggressive, concentrated bets on a commodity super-cycle and "anti-ESG" assets.
AI's New Bottleneck: The consensus trade is shifting from AI chips to the "pick-and-shovel" plays of AI: electricity generation (GEV) and physical construction (VMC).

Part I: The Titans – Strategic Reallocations

The largest capital pools are signaling caution on last cycle's winners and selectively deploying cash into laggards This is a stock picker's market

Warren Buffett

Berkshire

Narrative: "Mag 7" Arbitrage & Consumer Resilience

New BuyGOOGL: "Margin of safety"
New BuyDPZ: Franchise resilience
New BuyPOOL: Housing lock-in bet
TrimAAPL: Valuation discipline

Bill Gates

Foundation

Narrative: De-Risking Microsoft Anchor

SellMSFT: Slashed stake ~65%
ExitCCI: Bearish on 5G capex
ExitUPS: Negative trade outlook

George Soros

Soros Fund

Narrative: Bullish Big Tech, Bearish Macro

AddAMZN: Top holding
NewGEV: AI Data center power
HedgeRSP: Long Equal Weight
HedgeSPY Puts: Short Index

Bill Ackman

Pershing Sq

Narrative: The Google Conviction

CoreGOOGL: Massive top position
CoreBN: "Real Asset" theme

S. Druckenmiller

Duquesne

Narrative: Broad Changes, EM Bet

NewEEM: Emerging Markets bet
NewAMZN: Renewed interest
AddBAC: Tripled down (+189%)
ExitPM/ENTG: Portfolio cleanup

Rob Citrone

Discovery

Narrative: Bold, Contrarian Bets

NewGOOGL: Consensus value
NewCLF: Industrial/Steel play
NewCI & ELV: Health insurers

Part II: Growth & Tech – The Hardware Pivot

Historically architects of the SaaS bull market, the tech-focused gurus are dramatically pivoting—dumping high-beta software to buy AI's "hard" side (silicon, power).

Chase Coleman

Tiger Global

Narrative: The SaaS Massacre

AddAVGO (Custom Silicon)
AddGEV (AI Power Grid)
CutCRWD, DASH, NOW

Steve Mandel

Lone Pine

Narrative: Infra Over Intangibles

NewAVGO (AI Chips)
NewVMC (Data Center Concrete)
NewAPH (Interconnects)
CutMETA (Profit taking)

Philippe Laffont

Coatue

Narrative: Cautious Recalibration

TrimNVDA (-14%)
CoreNVDA (~9.9M shares left)
TrimGOOGL, AMZN

Baillie Gifford

Narrative: Pruning, Not Retreating

CoreNVDA, MELI, SE
AddDUOL (Growth Story)
ExitYMM (18 Exits total)

Andreas Halvorsen

Viking Global

Narrative: Bio-Pharma & Tech Pivot

BuyBio-Pharma
HoldNFLX (Implied)
HoldGEV (Implied)

Part III: Deep Value & Cyclical Contrarians

Aggressively positioning for a commodity super-cycle and a resurgence in "old economy" assets. Betting on sticky inflation.

Seth Klarman

Baupost

Narrative: Hard Assets & QSR

NewUNP (Railroad, 7.4% bet)
AddQSR (Doubled stake)
TrimGOOG (Took profits)
ExitVSAT, LBRDK

Mohnish Pabrai

Dalal St

Narrative: Offshore Drilling Maximalist

NewRIG (High torque driller)
HoldHCC (Met Coal)
RotateSold NE, VAL for RIG

David Tepper

Appaloosa

Narrative: China & Chip Catch-Up

AddKWEB/FXI (China stimulus)
AddAMD, QCOM
AddWHR (Housing)

Third Avenue

Value

Narrative: Energy Thesis Validation

AddTDW (Offshore vessels)
AddHCC, VAL
HoldDB (European Bank)

Prem Watsa

Fairfax

Narrative: The Inflation Hedge

HoldORLA (Gold)
HoldOXY (Oil)
HoldBB (Turnaround)

Donald Smith & Co.

Deep Value

Narrative: Gold & Japanese Value

AddHMC (Yen/Hybrid play)
AddHOG (Compressed value)
AddCGAU (Gold miner)

Part V: Thematic Synthesis

1. The AI Infrastructure "Barbell"

The "Buy Everything AI" phase is over. Gurus are barbell-ing exposure:

Side A (Silicon): Buying AVGO, AMD, APH (Custom chips, interconnects).
Side B (Power): Buying GEV (The grid cannot support AI without it).
The Short/Avoid: Selling high-beta SaaS (CRWD, NOW, DASH).

2. The "Housing Turnover" Rebound

Consensus is forming around the ecosystem of housing *turnover*. The bet is that stabilizing rates will unlock the "spring coil".

Buffett: Bought POOL (Maintenance/installation).
Tepper: Bought WHR (Appliances).
Value Shops: Buying RDN (Mortgage insurers).

3. The Bifurcation of "Big Tech"

The "Magnificent Seven" is no longer a monolithic asset class.

The Winners (GARP): AMZN, GOOGL. (Buffett, Soros, Ackman, Klarman). Valuations are reasonable (20-25x).
The Funding Sources: MSFT, AAPL, META. Viewed as fully valued and being sold to fund other trades.

4. The Energy & Materials Super-Cycle

A massive, quiet accumulation of real assets, betting on a decade of resource scarcity.

Offshore Cluster: RIG, TDW (Pabrai, Third Avenue).
Mining/Materials: ORLA, HCC, CGAU, CLF (Fairfax, Third Ave, D. Smith).
Construction: VMC, FLR, UNP (Lone Pine, Einhorn, Klarman).

Part VI: Strategic Implications

The "Edge" comes from understanding the *divergence*. The easy beta rally is over.

Pivot: "Application" to "Infrastructure"

Trim high-multiple SaaS. Rotate into Broadcom (AVGO) for AI silicon and GE Vernova (GEV) for the AI power grid.

Anchor: The "Google Catch-Up" Trade

Buffett's entry, validated by Ackman, Soros, and Druckenmiller, is a screaming buy signal. Make Alphabet (GOOGL) a core anchor.

Diversify: Contrarian Consumer & Industrials

Add "Best in Breed" franchises sold off by macro fears, like Pool Corp (POOL) or hard-asset plays like Union Pacific (UNP).

Speculative Alpha: Offshore Hedge

For an aggressive alpha sleeve, use the Transocean (RIG) / Tidewater (TDW) cluster as an inflation hedge uncorrelated to AI.

Part VII: The Flows in Numbers

Table 1: The "Mag 7" Sentiment Meter

Ticker	Company	Bullish Gurus	Bearish Gurus	Sentiment
AMZN	Amazon	Soros, Tiger, Druckenmiller	Coatue (Trim)	Strong Buy
GOOGL	Alphabet	Buffett, Soros, Ackman	Klarman (Trim)	Strong Buy
NVDA	Nvidia	Ken Fisher, Baillie	Coatue (Trim)	Hold
META	Meta	-	Lone Pine (-35%)	Sell
MSFT	Microsoft	-	Gates (-65%)	Strong Sell
AAPL	Apple	Ron Baron	Buffett (-25%)	Trim

Table 2: Top High-Conviction New Buys

Ticker	Company	Buying Guru	Thesis
UNP	Union Pacific	Klarman	Deep Value / Hard Asset
AVGO	Broadcom	Tiger Global, Lone Pine	Custom Silicon/AI Infra
GEV	GE Vernova	Soros, Tiger, Viking	Power Grid for AI
EEM	EM ETF	Druckenmiller	Macro Bet
POOL	Pool Corp	Buffett	Housing Pivot
RIG	Transocean	Pabrai	Offshore Supercycle
CLF	Cleveland-Cliffs	Citrone	Steel / Cyclical